Stock-value model
The ETF-price model is the interim published proxy; the stock-value model is the one intended to measure wealth composition and has no results yet. Status: in development: no results yet.
Data status
Stock-value model: in development: no results yet. Method: CCI stock-value v2 publication-gated per-score experimental.
Both stock-value model scores are “insufficient data” for every week: the risk-on score in 157 of 157 weeks and the defense score in 157 of 157 weeks (stock-value model), 2021-01-01 to 2023-12-29.
Gold holding record: missing: unverified stamp and rounded-tonne value excluded.
| Part | Definition | Stock-value model: part weeks covered | Input | Source | Native frequency | Stock-value model: input weeks covered | Maximum age | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Bitcoin market capitalisation | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | BTC_MARKET_CAP | none loaded | not known: no data loaded | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | 4 days | missing: 157 weeks |
| Equity | Total US equity market cap minus semiconductors | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | US_EQUITY_MARKET_CAP | SIFMA | quarterly (median 91.0 days) | 157 / 157 · stock-value model | 135 days | nothing missing |
| SEMICONDUCTOR_MARKET_CAP | none loaded | not known: no data loaded | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | undefined | missing: no maximum age defined: 157 weeks | |||
| Semiconductors | US semiconductor sector market cap | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | SEMICONDUCTOR_MARKET_CAP | none loaded | not known: no data loaded | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | undefined | missing: no maximum age defined: 157 weeks |
| Gold | Spot price × stated US gold stock | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | GOLD_USD_PER_OZ | none loaded | not known: no data loaded | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | 4 days | missing: 157 weeks |
| GOLD_HOLDINGS_TONNES | World Gold Council (original report hosted by Goldreporter) | annual or less frequent (median 396 days) | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | 45 days | missing: 157 weeks | |||
| Silver | Spot price × stated US silver stock | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | SILVER_USD_PER_OZ | none loaded | not known: no data loaded | 0 / 157 · stock-value model | 4 days | missing: 157 weeks |
| SILVER_HOLDINGS_TONNES | US Treasury | annual or less frequent (median 1096 days) | 68 / 157 · stock-value model | 460 days | stale: 89 weeks | |||
| Treasury debt | Marketable Treasury debt (reference part) | 68 / 157 · stock-value model | MARKETABLE_TREASURY_DEBT | US Treasury Bulletin original issue, Table FD-2 marketable total | monthly (median 31 days) | 68 / 157 · stock-value model | 45 days | missing: 26 weeks; stale: 63 weeks |
| Currency | Currency in circulation (Federal Reserve H.4.1) | 157 / 157 · stock-value model | CURRENCY_IN_CIRCULATION | Federal Reserve H.4.1 original release | weekly (median 7.0 days) | 157 / 157 · stock-value model | 10 days | nothing missing |
Coverage counts weeks in which an input has a dated published record within its maximum age. A part is covered only when all of its inputs are. No value is filled, interpolated or inferred. Machine-readable: coverage.json.
Comparison with the ETF-price model
Coordinate coverage in the week to 9 Oct 2026: ETF-price model 5 of 6 log-ratio coordinates (no cash proxy); stock-value model: insufficient data. Input coverage: ETF-price model 7 of 7 inputs.
ETF-price / stock-value comparison
Weekly log-ratio group scores. Green: risk-on score. Amber: defense. Dots: fired signals. Pink: disagreement weeks. Both panels share the same dates and y-scale.
Δ4 = score(t) − score(t−4); σ26 uses 26 weekly levels t−29 through t−4 inclusive (sample standard deviation). Fires only when |Δ4| > σ26. Direction is separate. Missing history is unavailable, not a non-fire.
ETF group views use adjusted prices relative to IEF; VTI and SOXX overlap. Cash is never inferred from oil. The published baseline below/above remains unchanged. Stock values are never inferred from ETF prices.
Descriptive in-sample comparison on available dates; fixed equal group weights.
Stock-value model
insufficient data
Weekly scores, signals and disagreement row, both models (93 weeks; expand)
| Week | ETF risk-on score | Stock risk-on score | ETF defense | Stock defense | Disagreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-03 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-01-10 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-01-17 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-01-24 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-01-31 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-02-07 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-02-14 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-02-21 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-02-28 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-03-07 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-03-14 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-03-21 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-03-28 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-04-04 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-04-11 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-04-18 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-04-25 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-02 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-09 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-16 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-23 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-30 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-06-06 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-06-13 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-06-20 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-06-27 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-07-04 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-07-11 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-07-18 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-07-25 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-01 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-08 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-15 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-22 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-29 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-09-05 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-09-12 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-09-19 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-09-26 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-03 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-10 | 3.13738 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-17 | 3.13438 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-24 | 3.16032 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-31 | 3.17594 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-11-07 | 3.13758 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-11-14 | 3.10164 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-11-21 | 3.02976 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-11-28 | 3.09536 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-12-05 | 3.11117 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-12-12 | 3.10491 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-12-19 | 3.09382 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-12-26 | 3.10140 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-02 | 3.11828 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-09 | 3.13948 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-16 | 3.17621 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-23 | 3.15421 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-30 | 3.13431 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-02-06 | 3.07247 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-02-13 | 3.05621 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-02-20 | 3.06010 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-02-27 | 3.03180 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-03-06 | 3.02182 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-03-13 | 3.04896 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-03-20 | 3.04561 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-03-27 | 3.01290 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-04-03 | 3.03381 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-04-10 | 3.11964 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-04-17 | 3.16983 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-04-24 | 3.21162 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-01 | 3.22356 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.18975, σ26=0.04998 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-08 | 3.27476 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.15512, σ26=0.04951 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-15 | 3.27802 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.10819, σ26=0.05110 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-22 | 3.28240 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.07079, σ26=0.05454 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-29 | 3.28830 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.06474, σ26=0.05794 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-06-05 | 3.21080 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.06396, σ26=0.06701 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.25032 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.02770, σ26=0.07505 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-06-19 | 3.27396 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.00844, σ26=0.08012 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-06-26 | 3.21465 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.07365, σ26=0.08625 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-03 | 3.23004 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.01924, σ26=0.08761 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.25324 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.00292, σ26=0.09032 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-17 | 3.21137 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.06259, σ26=0.09358 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-24 | 3.22147 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.00682, σ26=0.09406 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.20470 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.02534, σ26=0.09510 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-08-07 | 3.24606 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.00718, σ26=0.09698 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-08-14 | 3.24274 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.03137, σ26=0.09748 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.29100 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.06954, σ26=0.09820 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-08-28 | 3.28395 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.07925, σ26=0.09835 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-09-04 | 3.30424 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.05818, σ26=0.09768 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-09-11 | 3.30920 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.06645, σ26=0.09565 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-09-18 | 3.33068 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.03968, σ26=0.09485 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-09-25 | 3.37837 · up · FIRED · marginal · Δ4=0.09442, σ26=0.09104 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-10-02 | 3.39640 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.09216, σ26=0.08589 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-10-09 | 3.37089 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.06169, σ26=0.08158 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk-on score: unavailable, defense: unavailable |