BTCAvailable
Bitcoin
$82,445.87
-2.35% vs previous complete snapshot
24/7 crypto price
COUNTRY WEALTH COMPOSITION INDEX
Markets, in perspective.
Seven market exposures. One transparent research view.
HISTORICAL AVAILABILITY ASSUMED
As of 2026-10-09 23:59 UTC
Weekly snapshots · Friday 23:59 UTC cutoff. Experimental indicator; predictive value has not been established.
COUNTRY WEALTH COMPOSITION INDEX (CCI)+0.1923
Unbounded relative-market score
FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE+0.1853
Requires four consecutive complete weeks
INPUT COVERAGE7 / 7
All market inputs present
EVALUATION SAMPLES47
Association test; no performance guarantee
Method version: CCI weekly v4 BTC-Friday-21UTC experimental · ETF-price model: published baseline · Stock-value model: in development: no results yet
Method update · 2026-10-10
Bitcoin is now sampled at 21:00 UTC Friday, the same hour as the ETFs. Historical CCI values, group scores and signals were recomputed. Weights, the 2025-10-10 base date and signal rules are unchanged. Availability uses the assumed observation + 1 hour convention, not a verified provider publication timestamp. When an exact 21:00 observation is absent, the latest earlier observation that Friday is used; without one, the snapshot is incomplete.
Download previous v3 results (unaligned Bitcoin)
Every signal-status or direction change:
| Week | Model / score | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | etf.risk_on | not fired / down | not fired / up |
| 2026-09-25 | etf.risk_on | not fired / up | FIRED / up |
The JSON association statistics retain the archived v3 evaluation; this update recomputes the CCI and signal history.
This week’s contributions · 9 Oct 2026
In the week to 9 Oct 2026, Semiconductors added the most (+0.2414) and Bitcoin subtracted the most (-0.1102); the five contributions sum to the published CCI of +0.1923.
Zero weight: Oil (USO) (weight 0, contribution +0.0000), Silver (SLV) (weight 0, contribution +0.0000).
Market monitor
USD · prices per unit / fund shareVTIAvailable
US equities
$381.94
+1.05% vs previous complete snapshot
Broad-market ETF adjusted price
SOXXAvailable
Semiconductors
$559.40
-5.01% vs previous complete snapshot
Sector ETF adjusted price
USOAvailable
Oil exposure
$148.20
+0.56% vs previous complete snapshot
Oil-futures ETF adjusted price
GLDAvailable
Gold exposure
$384.58
+1.17% vs previous complete snapshot
Gold ETF adjusted price
SLVAvailable
Silver exposure
$54.78
+0.07% vs previous complete snapshot
Silver ETF adjusted price
IEFAvailable
US Treasuries
$89.40
+0.39% vs previous complete snapshot
Treasury ETF adjusted price
Weekly CCI trajectory
Risk-group strength relative to defensive proxiesETF-price model charts
Bitcoin (BTC) · growthUS equities (VTI) · growthSemiconductors (SOXX) · growthGold (GLD) · defensiveUS Treasuries (IEF) · defensiveOil (USO) · zero weightSilver (SLV) · zero weight
CCI was +0.1923 in the week to 9 Oct 2026, against +0.2216 a week earlier; its four-week average was +0.1853; the risk-on signal fired in 7 weeks, most recently 2 Oct 2026.
Across 53 complete weeks, Semiconductors added to CCI in 51 weeks and Bitcoin subtracted in 52 weeks; in the latest week they contributed +0.2414 and -0.1102.
In the week to 9 Oct 2026, the four-week change was +0.0617 against a σ26 band of ±0.0816, inside the band; the rule has been evaluable since 1 May 2026.
In the week to 9 Oct 2026, Oil had the highest level (213.58) and Bitcoin the lowest (71.84), with each input set to 100 on 10 Oct 2025.
Each panel shows one input normalised to 100 on 10 Oct 2025, on the same weeks with its own y-axis. Earlier weeks have no complete snapshot and are not plotted.
How to read this view
CCI compares relative movements in Bitcoin, broad equities and semiconductors against gold and Treasury proxies. Oil and silver add context through separate ratios.
These prices are not national wealth values. ETF exposures overlap and are not directly comparable dollar holdings. No asset shares are inferred from their prices.
Latest weekly snapshots
| Date | Coverage | CCI | 4-week |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | complete | +0.1923 | +0.1853 |
| 2026-10-02 | complete | +0.2216 | +0.1671 |
| 2026-09-25 | complete | +0.1901 | +0.1396 |
| 2026-09-18 | complete | +0.1370 | +0.1146 |
| 2026-09-11 | complete | +0.1197 | +0.1003 |
| 2026-09-04 | complete | +0.1116 | +0.0851 |
| 2026-08-28 | complete | +0.0901 | +0.0739 |
| 2026-08-21 | complete | +0.0796 | +0.0658 |
| 2026-08-14 | complete | +0.0591 | +0.0645 |
| 2026-08-07 | complete | +0.0669 | +0.0680 |
| 2026-07-31 | complete | +0.0576 | +0.0769 |
| 2026-07-24 | complete | +0.0743 | +0.0826 |
Sources & observation timestamps
| Exposure | Source | Observed | Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | CoinGecko:bitcoin | 2026-10-09T21:00:00+00:00 | 2026-10-09T22:00:00+00:00 |
| US equities | AlphaVantage:VTI | 2026-10-09T21:00:00+00:00 | 2026-10-09T22:00:00+00:00 |
| Semiconductors | AlphaVantage:SOXX | 2026-10-09T21:00:00+00:00 | 2026-10-09T22:00:00+00:00 |
| Oil exposure | AlphaVantage:USO | 2026-10-09T21:00:00+00:00 | 2026-10-09T22:00:00+00:00 |
| Gold exposure | AlphaVantage:GLD | 2026-10-09T21:00:00+00:00 | 2026-10-09T22:00:00+00:00 |
| Silver exposure | AlphaVantage:SLV | 2026-10-09T21:00:00+00:00 | 2026-10-09T22:00:00+00:00 |
| US Treasuries | AlphaVantage:IEF | 2026-10-09T21:00:00+00:00 | 2026-10-09T22:00:00+00:00 |
ETF-price / stock-value comparison
Weekly log-ratio group scores. Green: risk_on. Amber: defense. Dots: fired signals. Pink: disagreement weeks. Both panels share the same dates and y-scale.
Δ4 = score(t) − score(t−4); σ26 uses 26 weekly levels t−29 through t−4 inclusive (sample standard deviation). Fires only when |Δ4| > σ26. Direction is separate. Missing history is unavailable, not a non-fire.
ETF group views use adjusted prices relative to IEF; VTI and SOXX overlap. Cash is never inferred from oil. The published baseline below/above remains unchanged. Stock values are never inferred from ETF prices.
Descriptive in-sample comparison on available dates; fixed equal group weights.
ETF-price model · published baseline
Stock-value model · in development: no results yet (insufficient data; expand)
Stock-value model
insufficient data
Weekly scores, signals and disagreement row
Earlier weeks with no values, before the first complete week (expand)
| Week | ETF risk_on | Stock risk_on | ETF defense | Stock defense | Disagreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-03 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-01-10 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-01-17 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-01-24 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-01-31 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-02-07 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-02-14 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-02-21 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-02-28 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-03-07 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-03-14 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-03-21 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-03-28 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-04-04 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-04-11 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-04-18 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-04-25 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-02 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-09 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-16 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-23 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-05-30 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-06-06 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-06-13 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-06-20 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-06-27 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-07-04 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-07-11 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-07-18 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-07-25 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-01 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-08 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-15 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-22 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-08-29 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-09-05 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-09-12 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-09-19 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-09-26 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-03 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| Week | ETF risk_on | Stock risk_on | ETF defense | Stock defense | Disagreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | 3.13738 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-17 | 3.13438 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-24 | 3.16032 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-10-31 | 3.17594 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-11-07 | 3.13758 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-11-14 | 3.10164 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-11-21 | 3.02976 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-11-28 | 3.09536 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-12-05 | 3.11117 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-12-12 | 3.10491 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-12-19 | 3.09382 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2025-12-26 | 3.10140 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-02 | 3.11828 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-09 | 3.13948 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-16 | 3.17621 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-23 | 3.15421 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-01-30 | 3.13431 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-02-06 | 3.07247 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-02-13 | 3.05621 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-02-20 | 3.06010 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-02-27 | 3.03180 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-03-06 | 3.02182 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-03-13 | 3.04896 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-03-20 | 3.04561 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-03-27 | 3.01290 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-04-03 | 3.03381 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-04-10 | 3.11964 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-04-17 | 3.16983 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-04-24 | 3.21162 · signal unavailable (incomplete history) | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-01 | 3.22356 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.18975, σ26=0.04998 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-08 | 3.27476 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.15512, σ26=0.04951 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-15 | 3.27802 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.10819, σ26=0.05110 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-22 | 3.28240 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.07079, σ26=0.05454 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-05-29 | 3.28830 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.06474, σ26=0.05794 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-06-05 | 3.21080 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.06396, σ26=0.06701 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.25032 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.02770, σ26=0.07505 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-06-19 | 3.27396 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.00844, σ26=0.08012 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-06-26 | 3.21465 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.07365, σ26=0.08625 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-03 | 3.23004 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.01924, σ26=0.08761 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.25324 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.00292, σ26=0.09032 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-17 | 3.21137 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.06259, σ26=0.09358 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-24 | 3.22147 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.00682, σ26=0.09406 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.20470 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.02534, σ26=0.09510 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-08-07 | 3.24606 · down · not fired · Δ4=-0.00718, σ26=0.09698 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-08-14 | 3.24274 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.03137, σ26=0.09748 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.29100 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.06954, σ26=0.09820 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-08-28 | 3.28395 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.07925, σ26=0.09835 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-09-04 | 3.30424 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.05818, σ26=0.09768 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-09-11 | 3.30920 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.06645, σ26=0.09565 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-09-18 | 3.33068 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.03968, σ26=0.09485 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-09-25 | 3.37837 · up · FIRED · marginal · Δ4=0.09442, σ26=0.09104 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-10-02 | 3.39640 · up · FIRED · Δ4=0.09216, σ26=0.08589 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
| 2026-10-09 | 3.37089 · up · not fired · Δ4=0.06169, σ26=0.08158 | insufficient data | insufficient data | insufficient data | risk_on: unavailable, defense: unavailable |
Weekly chart suite
Green risk-on · amber defense · gray neutral/mixed · red disagreement · dark insufficient data. Hover for values rounded to five decimals, model, coverage, score-level contributions and weekly-change contributions.
Original ETF CCI is preserved. Stock scores remain separate: solid risk_on, dashed defense. Median regimes use the preceding 26 complete consecutive weekly levels, excluding current. Both above: explicitly mixed gray. Diamonds mark observed relative-score crossovers, not validated regime flips. Signal dots stay on the corresponding score points and use the unchanged threshold rule. Missing values remain gaps.
ETF-price · published baseline
Existing ETF CCI trajectory — original index scale
CCI trajectory — separate scores, colored by median regime
Score panel — risk_on and defense
Log-ratio heatmap
Fixed shared color range: −6.0 to +6.0; centered on zero. Out-of-range colors saturate; hover rounds values to five decimals. Dark cells: insufficient data.
Signal timeline
Stock-value charts · in development: no results yet (insufficient data; expand)
Stock-value
CCI trajectory — separate scores, colored by median regime
Score panel — risk_on and defense
Log-ratio heatmap
Fixed shared color range: −6.0 to +6.0; centered on zero. Out-of-range colors saturate; hover rounds values to five decimals. Dark cells: insufficient data.
Signal timeline
Model disagreement
Total disagreement weeks: 0 · ETF-only: 0 · Stock-value-only: 0 · Opposite directions: 0.
Red: disagreement; gray: agreement; dark: insufficient data. Compare risk_on and defense separately. A week can appear in multiple category counts when the two scores disagree in different ways; total counts unique weeks. Insufficient-data weeks: 93.
External ratios — context only
Separate labelled raw-unit scales; no normalization, interpolation or signal effect. Gold/oil price proxies must be explicitly labelled.